Balochistan Issue in brief

• Balochistan is Pakistan's largest but most backward province.
• When Pakistan got independence in 1947, the rulers of the Khanate of Kalat (a princely state under British) refused to accede to pakistan.
• Pakistan sent troops and occupied the territory which now forms a part of the Balochistan province.
• Though Yar Khan, the then ruler of Kalat, later signed a treaty of accession, his brothers and followers continued to fight.
• As of now, several separatist groups exist in the province, Balochistan Liberation Army being the strongest
• Pakistan alleges that BLA is backed by India

Baluchistan in Indo-Pak relations

• Mentioned by PM in his independence day speech.
• Pakistan incorporated Baluchistan in its territory forcefully after independence. HR violations rampant.
• Baluchis appealed to PM when he visited White House. Couldn't have made a statement there. (3rd nation)
• India has maintained a moral high ground generally that it will not interfere in internal affairs. But, necessary to show Pak a mirror at this point of time. Moreover, no place for morality in IR beyond rhetoric. IR is cold blooded in practice.
• India hinting that it can counter Pakistan rhetoric on violation of HR in Kashmir rhetoric more aggressively.
• Pakistan saying that India is meddling in Pakistan's internal affairs. 
• Indo-Pak dialogue has been derailed. (Pakistan wants to talk on Kashmir, India on cross border terrorism)
• In PoK, there was violence witnessed earlier this year due to rigging of elections conducted by Pakistan there.
• Way forward will be for Pakistan to take a step back and resume talks on low hanging fruits and putting the sensitive issues on a back burner for now.

Why France prone to radicalization?

·  5 million Muslims (presently, 7.5% of population but increasing because Muslims= 4-5 children/ couple and others only 1)

·  Live in ghettos, treated as 2nd class citizens=> easy to radicalize.

·  France’s rule in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia (the country of Md. Bouhlel’s origin) was sometimes heavy-handed.

·  France did not fulfill promises made during 2^nd world war. (Algerians killed 84 Europeans in Setiff massacre, harsh respose by French)

·  In 1961, during the Algerian war of independence, it is believed that nearly 50 Algerians who participated in an illegal march in Paris were tortured and killed by the French police, with their bodies thrown in the Seine river.

·  Pervasive social media.

·  Muslim Population has sympathy for Islamic terrorism (the Paris Bataclan attack mastermind, Salah Abdeslam, hid in Molenbeek, Belgium) 

·  Text book approach of IS (creating fantasies, making violence desirable, literal interpretation of religious texts)

The France government should look to solve above issues in the long term to take the problem at its roots.

How ISIS was formed

·        Zarqawi visited Afghanistan as a fighter but got pushed towards extremism by the teachings of Maqdisi

·        He returned to Jordan and continued to engage in terrorist activities there.

·        He then entered Iraq in 2004 with his fighters by the support of Assad to fight the US forces.

·        After some time he affiliated to Al Qaeda (to access funds and fighters) and formed Al qaeda of Iraq

·        Initially the Sunnis joined it but later became dissatisfied and organised Anbar Awakening/ Sahwa movement to successfully crush AQI

·        The sectarian divides were increasing due Nouri Al Malicki’s pro shiite Policies. And moreover, after the debaathification of Iraq’s military sunnis were left jobless.

·        After the Sahwa movement, the 20% of the militants were promised jobs in army. The promises were however not kept. The sunnis thus joined AQI in huge numbers and began massacring Shias in huge numbers

·        AQI renamed  itself as Islamic State of Iraq after Zarqawi’s death in 2006.

·        In 2010, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi became its leader and started acting more independent of Al Qaeda

·        In 2011, Baghdadi sent Joulani in Syria to form an Al Qaeda branch there, which later cropped up as Jabhat al Nusra.

·        Later Baghdadi started interfering in Syria to the dislike of Joulani.

·        Finally, in 2013 it broke off from Al Qaeda (leader: Zawahiri) and renamed itself as ISIS.

Reasons for Turkey Coup

• Turkey's once-powerful military has long considered itself the guardian of the secular state founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in 1923.
• Erdogan's critics have long accused him of undermining Turkey's secular roots and of sliding into authoritarianism, but the president was believed to have won control of the military after purging elements who opposed him.
• He brought military appointments under civilian control and carried out proceedings against various military personnel who were anti to him
• He limited the jurisdiction of military court
• He is attempting to rewrite the constitution to give more powers to himself
• He backed IS in Syria, IS has recently attacked Turkey itself
• He is against Kurdish people who are helping fight IS
• Though there are some sections of people who are against Erdogan, they don’t want military to solve their problems.
• People afraid of the military government
• Govt blamed coup on followers of Islamist scholar and Erdogan critic Fethullah Gulen

Nepal Crisis

• Maoists to withdraw support from PM Oli of UML due to non fulfillment of promises.
• Maoists are led by Prachanda, backed by Nepali Congress
• Earlier also attempted in May this year. But, Oli said that after budget he will give power to Prachanda and China also intervened 
• Madhesis also not happy with Oli
• If it happens, 9th PM change in 8 years in Nepal.
• Also at play is the inherent competition for support base b/w Maoists and UML
• Also, very little done post earthquake
• PM Oli has Blamed India for all its troubles.
• India has been accused of this instability of Nepal.
• But, only stable Nepal in favour of India.
• Instead, there are reports of Chinese interfering to keep Oli in power.
• China can never provide Nepal what India does. (Nepal is not just landlocked, it is India-locked)

Modi's 4 nation Africa tour

• Mozambique, S. Africa, Kenya, Tanzania
• giving primacy to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) (security dimension), whose westernmost edge is defined by these countries
• mega-modernization project of ‘Sagar Mala’, (coastal area development, port infrastructure advancement, connectivity and sea-based industrial synergies)=> interlinked to our strategic drive to be the defense and logistical partner for Africa’s eastern coast.
• Chinese economy slowdown => its absorption rates for African minerals at a low point, Africa needs an alternative (India's make in India). Also, China not giving jobs to Africans in their projects in Africa.
• We need export markets as we industrialize (presently, two-way trade $72 billion)
• Also, Africa also a good market for Services export
• Africa has the youthful demography and the rising purchasing power
• Irritant: Racial attacks on Africans in India 
• PM should call a conference of foreign students and ask what they want. Also, need to create awareness regarding Africa in public.
• Season of apologies (Canadian PM's apology for Komagata Maru, Pope's apology to LGBT)
• But the visit will focus only on the good things. It is human nature and diplomatic practice to focus on the pleasant, on ‘areas of convergence’. It feels good to do so.
• Presence of Indian companies in Africa: Mahindra, Tata, Airtel, Apollo Services etc
• Earlier, overdependence on South Africa (BRICS, IBSA, etc.). 
• Potential area of cooperation: Anti terrorism

PS: This is a pre-visit analysis. Post visit analysis will follow soon.