Balochistan Issue in brief

• Balochistan is Pakistan's largest but most backward province.
• When Pakistan got independence in 1947, the rulers of the Khanate of Kalat (a princely state under British) refused to accede to pakistan.
• Pakistan sent troops and occupied the territory which now forms a part of the Balochistan province.
• Though Yar Khan, the then ruler of Kalat, later signed a treaty of accession, his brothers and followers continued to fight.
• As of now, several separatist groups exist in the province, Balochistan Liberation Army being the strongest
• Pakistan alleges that BLA is backed by India

Baluchistan in Indo-Pak relations

• Mentioned by PM in his independence day speech.
• Pakistan incorporated Baluchistan in its territory forcefully after independence. HR violations rampant.
• Baluchis appealed to PM when he visited White House. Couldn't have made a statement there. (3rd nation)
• India has maintained a moral high ground generally that it will not interfere in internal affairs. But, necessary to show Pak a mirror at this point of time. Moreover, no place for morality in IR beyond rhetoric. IR is cold blooded in practice.
• India hinting that it can counter Pakistan rhetoric on violation of HR in Kashmir rhetoric more aggressively.
• Pakistan saying that India is meddling in Pakistan's internal affairs. 
• Indo-Pak dialogue has been derailed. (Pakistan wants to talk on Kashmir, India on cross border terrorism)
• In PoK, there was violence witnessed earlier this year due to rigging of elections conducted by Pakistan there.
• Way forward will be for Pakistan to take a step back and resume talks on low hanging fruits and putting the sensitive issues on a back burner for now.

Why France prone to radicalization?

·  5 million Muslims (presently, 7.5% of population but increasing because Muslims= 4-5 children/ couple and others only 1)

·  Live in ghettos, treated as 2nd class citizens=> easy to radicalize.

·  France’s rule in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia (the country of Md. Bouhlel’s origin) was sometimes heavy-handed.

·  France did not fulfill promises made during 2^nd world war. (Algerians killed 84 Europeans in Setiff massacre, harsh respose by French)

·  In 1961, during the Algerian war of independence, it is believed that nearly 50 Algerians who participated in an illegal march in Paris were tortured and killed by the French police, with their bodies thrown in the Seine river.

·  Pervasive social media.

·  Muslim Population has sympathy for Islamic terrorism (the Paris Bataclan attack mastermind, Salah Abdeslam, hid in Molenbeek, Belgium) 

·  Text book approach of IS (creating fantasies, making violence desirable, literal interpretation of religious texts)

The France government should look to solve above issues in the long term to take the problem at its roots.

How ISIS was formed

·        Zarqawi visited Afghanistan as a fighter but got pushed towards extremism by the teachings of Maqdisi

·        He returned to Jordan and continued to engage in terrorist activities there.

·        He then entered Iraq in 2004 with his fighters by the support of Assad to fight the US forces.

·        After some time he affiliated to Al Qaeda (to access funds and fighters) and formed Al qaeda of Iraq

·        Initially the Sunnis joined it but later became dissatisfied and organised Anbar Awakening/ Sahwa movement to successfully crush AQI

·        The sectarian divides were increasing due Nouri Al Malicki’s pro shiite Policies. And moreover, after the debaathification of Iraq’s military sunnis were left jobless.

·        After the Sahwa movement, the 20% of the militants were promised jobs in army. The promises were however not kept. The sunnis thus joined AQI in huge numbers and began massacring Shias in huge numbers

·        AQI renamed  itself as Islamic State of Iraq after Zarqawi’s death in 2006.

·        In 2010, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi became its leader and started acting more independent of Al Qaeda

·        In 2011, Baghdadi sent Joulani in Syria to form an Al Qaeda branch there, which later cropped up as Jabhat al Nusra.

·        Later Baghdadi started interfering in Syria to the dislike of Joulani.

·        Finally, in 2013 it broke off from Al Qaeda (leader: Zawahiri) and renamed itself as ISIS.

Reasons for Turkey Coup

• Turkey's once-powerful military has long considered itself the guardian of the secular state founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in 1923.
• Erdogan's critics have long accused him of undermining Turkey's secular roots and of sliding into authoritarianism, but the president was believed to have won control of the military after purging elements who opposed him.
• He brought military appointments under civilian control and carried out proceedings against various military personnel who were anti to him
• He limited the jurisdiction of military court
• He is attempting to rewrite the constitution to give more powers to himself
• He backed IS in Syria, IS has recently attacked Turkey itself
• He is against Kurdish people who are helping fight IS
• Though there are some sections of people who are against Erdogan, they don’t want military to solve their problems.
• People afraid of the military government
• Govt blamed coup on followers of Islamist scholar and Erdogan critic Fethullah Gulen

Nepal Crisis

• Maoists to withdraw support from PM Oli of UML due to non fulfillment of promises.
• Maoists are led by Prachanda, backed by Nepali Congress
• Earlier also attempted in May this year. But, Oli said that after budget he will give power to Prachanda and China also intervened 
• Madhesis also not happy with Oli
• If it happens, 9th PM change in 8 years in Nepal.
• Also at play is the inherent competition for support base b/w Maoists and UML
• Also, very little done post earthquake
• PM Oli has Blamed India for all its troubles.
• India has been accused of this instability of Nepal.
• But, only stable Nepal in favour of India.
• Instead, there are reports of Chinese interfering to keep Oli in power.
• China can never provide Nepal what India does. (Nepal is not just landlocked, it is India-locked)

Modi's 4 nation Africa tour

• Mozambique, S. Africa, Kenya, Tanzania
• giving primacy to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) (security dimension), whose westernmost edge is defined by these countries
• mega-modernization project of ‘Sagar Mala’, (coastal area development, port infrastructure advancement, connectivity and sea-based industrial synergies)=> interlinked to our strategic drive to be the defense and logistical partner for Africa’s eastern coast.
• Chinese economy slowdown => its absorption rates for African minerals at a low point, Africa needs an alternative (India's make in India). Also, China not giving jobs to Africans in their projects in Africa.
• We need export markets as we industrialize (presently, two-way trade $72 billion)
• Also, Africa also a good market for Services export
• Africa has the youthful demography and the rising purchasing power
• Irritant: Racial attacks on Africans in India 
• PM should call a conference of foreign students and ask what they want. Also, need to create awareness regarding Africa in public.
• Season of apologies (Canadian PM's apology for Komagata Maru, Pope's apology to LGBT)
• But the visit will focus only on the good things. It is human nature and diplomatic practice to focus on the pleasant, on ‘areas of convergence’. It feels good to do so.
• Presence of Indian companies in Africa: Mahindra, Tata, Airtel, Apollo Services etc
• Earlier, overdependence on South Africa (BRICS, IBSA, etc.). 
• Potential area of cooperation: Anti terrorism

PS: This is a pre-visit analysis. Post visit analysis will follow soon.

Brexit and Its Impact on India

Brexit

·        Referendum held in UK voted in favor of Brexit. But when we look at a region wise analysis, Scotland and North Ireland voted to remain in EU.

·        What will happen? Disintegration of UK in order?

·        Why people voted for Brexit? Recession, nationalism ignited, anti immigration attitude, cultural identity sought to be retained.

·        Experts see it as a vote of working class against market forces.

·        Various analysis, point out that the younger generation wanted to remain in EU (Because of job opportunities in EU as a whole being open to them due to membership of EU)

·        Immediate Impacts: Pound has already fallen, stock market crashed, PM has resigned, US has expressed disappointment, global ramifications.

·        Other Implications: lose huge market of EU.

·        Options for UK after Brexit

·        To adopt Norwegian Model (access to EU market despite non member), though it will have separate costs (it requires contribution to EU budgets etc.)

·        FTA with EU (but it will not cover financial services, competition)

Brexit impact on India

·        EU countries will start imposing tariffs on British products, making it far less attractive for Indian businesses – like Tata Motors – to have a manufacturing base in the U.K.

·        oil prices immediately declined, though it is a short term consequence

·        EU is regarded as a measure by Europe to discourage non white migration, so this is perceived as beneficial for Indian migrants

·        British pound collapsed. This is also likely to result in an increase in Indian students choosing the UK as a destination for higher education as this will make studying there significantly cheaper. Also, a surge in leisure tourism to Britain is expected, as it will become significantly cheaper.

·        The jobs for Indians already there will increase as citizens from EU there will not have any undue advantage

·        There will be some modification and moderation's in the  proposed India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

Recently, there have been reports of a significant number of people in UK regretting voting in favor of Brexit. Let us wait and watch how things pan out in the future.

India and NSG

The inception of NSG

·        NSG was invented post India’s nuclear technology demonstration test of 1974.

·        If India is given  the membership of NSG,that too without it signing NPT, then its whole objective and fundamentals will be diluted.

Effect of being its member

·        prestige,

·        nuclear tech and fuel needs,

·        export its own nuclear tech,

·        But, some say the membership is only symbolic in nature as India already secured a NSG waiver in 2008 which serves the aforesaid interests

Pessimism

·        India has failed to secure a permanent UNSC seat and admission to APEC

·        Opposition from China and others. Infact only 32/48 members of NSG support India’s membership

·        Unrealistic expectations as membership can only be achieved when all 48 agree

Optimism about the deal among some diplomats

·        In 2008, India secured a NSG waiver

·        We need to adhere to subtle diplomacy to achieve goals wrt NSG 

Why India should get NSG membership?

·        Unblemished non proliferation record

·         inclination to non discriminatory disarmament

·        Indian export regulations already comply

·        MTCR membership secured

·        voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing

·        no first use policy

·        genuine energy needs

China’s own behaviour with regard to international obligations

·        Has improved its nuclear arsenal after joining NPT and NSG, issue wrt North Korea and Pakistan

Limitations of NSG

·        Cant curtail members nuclear weapons program.

·        At best, the NSG can try and become more effective in preventing further horizontal proliferation among the NPT non-nuclear armed states.

India France Relations

France was India’s first strategic partner. It began to supply aircrafts (Dassault Ouragon fighters/ Toofani) to India as early as in 1953. It was also the first country to restart talks with India post 1998 nuclear test by India. 

The relations between the two countries have spanned across nuclear, space and defence sectors. CNES and ISRO have a history of close collaborations in the past, which bore fruits in the form of projects like Megha Trophique and SARAL to name a few. In case of defence, France is a better partner than USA as  the latter may back out from providing India spare parts in case of Indo-Pak tensions. Besides, agreement on defence cooperation has been expanded till 2026 recently. Also, France is expected to build nuclear plant in Jaitapur.

Presently, the areas of cooperation between the two countries have expanded. Counter terrorism is one of the area.  Another is intelligence sharing. The cyber security related issues have also surfaced in recent times on which the two countries can collaborate. The two countries are also jointly studying the impact of climate change on Agriculture in India. International Solar Alliance is also a mutual initiative.

In 2016, the chief guest at the Republic Day parade was the French President, which takes the number of such instances to 5.

Despite all the positives, bilateral trade remains a concern which presently stands at around USD 8 Billion. Also, weak P2P relations are a cause of worry. In addition to that, there are also concerns over Rafale deal.

The trade relations are expected to improve with the signing of India-EU FTA, the negotiations of which are stuck at present and may be further delayed due to Brexit.

  

Other potential areas include recently envisaged the joint ventures and partnerships, infrastructure such as railways, smart cities and renewable energy projects. France is also a permanent member of UNSC and can thus support India in its quest for a UNSC permanent seat.

India-Iran ties

Our PM’s visit in May this year was the first bilateral visit exchanged between the two nations since 2003. Despite having good relations earlier, India-Iran relations suffered from lack of trust which developed during the times of sanctions on Iran. One prominent reason was India voting against Iran at the IAEA. Though the vote was not entirely due to pressure from US, it was also partly due to India’s self interests. The lifting of sanctions from Iran after its agreement with P5+1 offers new opportunities to India to take the bilateral ties forward.

One of the main interests of India in Iran is Chabahar port. It will provide access to Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan. This will also boost India’s Connect Central Asia Policy. It is also seen as counter to China’s development of Gwader (Pakistan). Though, questions have been raised over India’s seriousness regarding to this port, the fact is that the enthusiasm has been lacking from the Iran side due to vested interests. India’s dedication can be gauged from the completion of Zaranj Delaram road.

Besides, India is also looking for stake in Farzad B gas fields. An under sea gas pipeline from Iran to India is also in the offing.  The lifting of sanctions also brings Iran’s oil in the world market thus taking the price of crude even lower levels, which is desirable for India. This can help India ensure energy security and boost its manufacturing.

On the geopolitical front, India ,while engaging Iran, should not alienate Israel and Saudi Arabia. What India lacks in Iran is some significant stake. For instance , in Saudi Arabia, we have a considerable diaspora (our stake there). The investment in Chabahar port and Farzad B gas fields will give us that stake. This will considerably improve our bilateral relations.

Also, the involvement of Iran in the peace process is crucial for stability of West Asian region. This is important for India due to its sizable diaspora in the region and the remittances coming from them.

Iran is a well educated, industrialized and stable country. With the lifting of sanctions, India should look to take care of the misunderstandings that have emerged over time. Iran, at the same time, is also fully aware of the potential, both economic and geopolitical, of its relations with India.

The problem of Racialism in India-Africa Relations

With the 2015 India Africa summit, all seemed to be on an upward trajectory in the India-Africa relations. And, so it is the case when we talk about trade, investments and other economic measures. However, when it comes to the societal level, we have a problem. The problem is of racialism.

The Africans have continuously been victims of the racial attitude of Indians towards them. The problems range from a landlord denying to rent them accommodation to the recent murder of a person from Congo or the not so long ago incident of stripping of a Tanzanian woman in Bengaluru. The incidents like former mostly go unnoticed whereas the latter are passed off as problems of law and order problem rather than something more serious i.e. the problem of mindset. Due to certain stray incidents, the Africans are often stereotyped as drug peddlers or running prostitution rackets. Clearly, this shows lack of understanding of Africa and its people at the level of masses.

There are repercussions to this. The more tangible will be the backlash on people of Indian Origin in Africa. This has already begun in Congo. In addition to that is the potential threat to future of India Africa relations. Some of the African students in India in present will make the future leaders of Africa. The image of India they develop in their formative years will matter. The African diplomats’ refusal to participate in the Africa Day celebrations (May 2016) will draw International attention. India’s quest for a UNSC seat might also get hampered.

The government has resorted to action by introducing sensitization campaigns but more needs to be done. Given that the communicator he is, the PM should make a strong statement on the issue. Value Education should be there and eradicating racialism should be one of its targets. This couple with fast tracked justice and stringent punishments has the potential to take down the issue at hand.

Africa is a continent where there are tremendous possibilities. For instance, mineral reserves, a growing market, and potential collaborations on international issues such as climate change, Doha development agenda, etc. The relations cannot be jeopardized. But, more than that it is the spirit of humanism that should guide the extinction of racialism from Indian mindset, be it against Africans or fellow countrymen from different regions.