Reasons for Turkey Coup

• Turkey's once-powerful military has long considered itself the guardian of the secular state founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in 1923.
• Erdogan's critics have long accused him of undermining Turkey's secular roots and of sliding into authoritarianism, but the president was believed to have won control of the military after purging elements who opposed him.
• He brought military appointments under civilian control and carried out proceedings against various military personnel who were anti to him
• He limited the jurisdiction of military court
• He is attempting to rewrite the constitution to give more powers to himself
• He backed IS in Syria, IS has recently attacked Turkey itself
• He is against Kurdish people who are helping fight IS
• Though there are some sections of people who are against Erdogan, they don’t want military to solve their problems.
• People afraid of the military government
• Govt blamed coup on followers of Islamist scholar and Erdogan critic Fethullah Gulen

Nepal Crisis

• Maoists to withdraw support from PM Oli of UML due to non fulfillment of promises.
• Maoists are led by Prachanda, backed by Nepali Congress
• Earlier also attempted in May this year. But, Oli said that after budget he will give power to Prachanda and China also intervened 
• Madhesis also not happy with Oli
• If it happens, 9th PM change in 8 years in Nepal.
• Also at play is the inherent competition for support base b/w Maoists and UML
• Also, very little done post earthquake
• PM Oli has Blamed India for all its troubles.
• India has been accused of this instability of Nepal.
• But, only stable Nepal in favour of India.
• Instead, there are reports of Chinese interfering to keep Oli in power.
• China can never provide Nepal what India does. (Nepal is not just landlocked, it is India-locked)

Modi's 4 nation Africa tour

• Mozambique, S. Africa, Kenya, Tanzania
• giving primacy to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) (security dimension), whose westernmost edge is defined by these countries
• mega-modernization project of ‘Sagar Mala’, (coastal area development, port infrastructure advancement, connectivity and sea-based industrial synergies)=> interlinked to our strategic drive to be the defense and logistical partner for Africa’s eastern coast.
• Chinese economy slowdown => its absorption rates for African minerals at a low point, Africa needs an alternative (India's make in India). Also, China not giving jobs to Africans in their projects in Africa.
• We need export markets as we industrialize (presently, two-way trade $72 billion)
• Also, Africa also a good market for Services export
• Africa has the youthful demography and the rising purchasing power
• Irritant: Racial attacks on Africans in India 
• PM should call a conference of foreign students and ask what they want. Also, need to create awareness regarding Africa in public.
• Season of apologies (Canadian PM's apology for Komagata Maru, Pope's apology to LGBT)
• But the visit will focus only on the good things. It is human nature and diplomatic practice to focus on the pleasant, on ‘areas of convergence’. It feels good to do so.
• Presence of Indian companies in Africa: Mahindra, Tata, Airtel, Apollo Services etc
• Earlier, overdependence on South Africa (BRICS, IBSA, etc.). 
• Potential area of cooperation: Anti terrorism

PS: This is a pre-visit analysis. Post visit analysis will follow soon.

Brexit and Its Impact on India

Brexit

·        Referendum held in UK voted in favor of Brexit. But when we look at a region wise analysis, Scotland and North Ireland voted to remain in EU.

·        What will happen? Disintegration of UK in order?

·        Why people voted for Brexit? Recession, nationalism ignited, anti immigration attitude, cultural identity sought to be retained.

·        Experts see it as a vote of working class against market forces.

·        Various analysis, point out that the younger generation wanted to remain in EU (Because of job opportunities in EU as a whole being open to them due to membership of EU)

·        Immediate Impacts: Pound has already fallen, stock market crashed, PM has resigned, US has expressed disappointment, global ramifications.

·        Other Implications: lose huge market of EU.

·        Options for UK after Brexit

·        To adopt Norwegian Model (access to EU market despite non member), though it will have separate costs (it requires contribution to EU budgets etc.)

·        FTA with EU (but it will not cover financial services, competition)

Brexit impact on India

·        EU countries will start imposing tariffs on British products, making it far less attractive for Indian businesses – like Tata Motors – to have a manufacturing base in the U.K.

·        oil prices immediately declined, though it is a short term consequence

·        EU is regarded as a measure by Europe to discourage non white migration, so this is perceived as beneficial for Indian migrants

·        British pound collapsed. This is also likely to result in an increase in Indian students choosing the UK as a destination for higher education as this will make studying there significantly cheaper. Also, a surge in leisure tourism to Britain is expected, as it will become significantly cheaper.

·        The jobs for Indians already there will increase as citizens from EU there will not have any undue advantage

·        There will be some modification and moderation's in the  proposed India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

Recently, there have been reports of a significant number of people in UK regretting voting in favor of Brexit. Let us wait and watch how things pan out in the future.

India and NSG

The inception of NSG

·        NSG was invented post India’s nuclear technology demonstration test of 1974.

·        If India is given  the membership of NSG,that too without it signing NPT, then its whole objective and fundamentals will be diluted.

Effect of being its member

·        prestige,

·        nuclear tech and fuel needs,

·        export its own nuclear tech,

·        But, some say the membership is only symbolic in nature as India already secured a NSG waiver in 2008 which serves the aforesaid interests

Pessimism

·        India has failed to secure a permanent UNSC seat and admission to APEC

·        Opposition from China and others. Infact only 32/48 members of NSG support India’s membership

·        Unrealistic expectations as membership can only be achieved when all 48 agree

Optimism about the deal among some diplomats

·        In 2008, India secured a NSG waiver

·        We need to adhere to subtle diplomacy to achieve goals wrt NSG 

Why India should get NSG membership?

·        Unblemished non proliferation record

·         inclination to non discriminatory disarmament

·        Indian export regulations already comply

·        MTCR membership secured

·        voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing

·        no first use policy

·        genuine energy needs

China’s own behaviour with regard to international obligations

·        Has improved its nuclear arsenal after joining NPT and NSG, issue wrt North Korea and Pakistan

Limitations of NSG

·        Cant curtail members nuclear weapons program.

·        At best, the NSG can try and become more effective in preventing further horizontal proliferation among the NPT non-nuclear armed states.